Warning Signs
'But he's good on the economy'
For all Donald Trump’s claims about the historic “accomplishments” of his first few weeks in office he can’t escape talk of a US recession this year, telling one of his favorite reporters Maria Bartiromo of Fox News only that the country is in a “period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big.”
As stock markets ended their worst week for months, giving up any gains since Trump was elected, uncertainty – no, chaos – surrounding the White House’s tariff policy hangs over the economy like, well, the indecisive arsonist on the cover of this week’s Economist, which argues that “the President and reality are drifting apart” and that his “economic delusions are already hurting America.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday: "We're at a stage where we're still very uncertain about what will be tariffed, for how long, at what level. But the likelihood is some of that will find its way. It will hit the exporters, the importers, the retailers and to some extent consumers."
American consumer confidence last month recorded its biggest decline since 2021 and such unease largely transcends politics. Usually.
While some of Trump’s base voters might be “ready to blame him if their lives don’t improve soon”, as Sarah Longwell writes at The Atlantic, others believe they’re getting exactly what they signed up for, including the widespread disruption of the federal government through the impact of Elon Musk's so-called DOGE team..
With yet more job losses in the offing, Trump called Musk to the White House on Thursday in an attempt to clarify some kind of hierarchy of responsibility for departmental staffing.
According to Politico: “The president later told reporters he wants Cabinet members to “keep all the people you want, everybody that you need.” But he also said he wanted cuts, and that Musk would remain a power center: “If they can cut, it’s better. And if they don’t cut, then Elon will do the cutting.”
So, crystal clear.
In a good commentary on where things stand, John Ganz writes at his Unpopular Front substack that:
“[Trump] was elected on “being good on the economy,” essentially because he was rich and people figured that they’d make him rich, but he seems so determined to unsettle investment prospects and upset markets that some see a deliberate plot to destroy the United States economy. Businesses need some expectation of normality to make decisions about hiring, capital expansion, and inventory. The only thing wrong with that theory is that it’s too coherent: it suggests some underlying rationale. Might I humbly suggest that Trump’s beliefs about the economy are contradictory and not terribly well-thought-out?
“There is already a deep contradiction in the coalition: on the one hand, you have Silicon Valley pushing an insane anarcho-capitalist agenda and then you have national populists hoping for a welfare state but just for white folks. They may just be tasked with an impossible job.”
Into this cauldron of commercial confusion, Trump chose to cast his new Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, which critics called a “dream come true” for the President’s donors. The move, followed by a White House Crypto Summit, comes, of course, after Trump and his wife launched personal memecoins within days of his inauguration. Since then, “more than 700 copycat and spam coins have been sent to Trump’s digital wallet by people apparently seeking to suggest their creations have his endorsement”, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.
Meanwhile, House Republicans unveiled their stopgap measure for funding the government past the March 14th deadline, basically daring Democrats to vote against it. Democrats, in turn, said protecting funding for Medicaid is their “redline”. It’s unsure whether a vote, slated for Tuesday, might pass.
As the US and the rest of the world strives for stability and functional financial order, it probably didn’t help that the President this week said – out loud – that he thought his tariff plans would “add excitement” to the 2026 World Cup finals, set to be co-hosted by the US, Canada and Mexico.
FIFA president Gianni Infantino, who has cultivated a close relationship with Mr Trump, has said he is hoping for Russia’s full return to world football after the country was banned following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, although he denied that Trump had requested such a move.
If you’re a soccer fan, you might like to read a couple of Q&As I did over the past couple of seasons which touched on sportswashing, the World Cup and football as the ‘global game’:
‘Over/Under’ – Ian Nicholas Quillen
‘Blue Moon and Great Balls of Fire’ – John Pearson
***
Alignments
Ukraine says Russia has carried out “hundreds of attacks” in the week since the US "paused" support for its former ally, a move compounded by a suspension of intelligence information to Ukrainian forces.
With Secretary of State Marco Rubio to meet Ukrainian leaders – but not President Zelenskyy – in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, CBS News reported that “Rubio spoke with Ukraine's foreign minister about "all sides" taking steps to secure a sustainable peace, which would suggest a request for Ukrainian concessions. It is not clear if Russia has offered any at all.”
Trump, who has talked about the “threat” of sanctions on Russia, appears to have suggested that his proposed minerals deal with Ukraine – amid some conflicting valuations – won’t now be enough in itself to resume US aid.
In a week where America now “largely aligns with Moscow’s vision”, according to, er, Moscow, Russia’s “bombing the hell” out of Ukraine doesn’t appear to align with any vision that Americans want; although as with most things now, that depends on which side you’re on.
The problem for Ukraine, to quote Cardinal Benitez, is what happens next. Don’t expect a twist.
With European governments aiming to keep their momentum of this week going by forging a fresh alliance after 80 years of transatlantic ties, the irony of an unexploded WW2 bomb disrupting Eurostar services between London and Paris on Friday served as a reminder of why the EU and Nato existed.
The BBC’s Katya Adler writes:
“The US has filled the yawning gaps in European defence, left by years of chronic under-investment after the end of the Cold War.
“The number of troops in Europe diminished with the end of conscription in most European countries. The US has roughly 100,000 troops and nuclear weapons in various parts of Europe under Nato's nuclear sharing policy. Many of them are in non-nuclear, major European power Germany, which fears being severely exposed to Russia should Donald Trump withdraw support.
“If the UK and France manage to assemble what they call a "coalition of the willing" — European countries that accept to send even a modest number of peacekeeping troops into Ukraine once a ceasefire is agreed — that could stretch European armies and expose gaps in Nato defences.”
***
Enjoy it while you can
With just a few more weeks of Spring Training to go, The Athletic casts an eye over some standout players to watch in the coming season.
But the last prospect any of us want to hear about right now is the idea of a further labor dispute once the current agreement expires.
According to a report by Barry M. Bloom in Sportico, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark said to media members on Friday, “Unless I am mistaken the league has come out and said there’s going to be a work stoppage.” Clark was referring to recent comments from MLB commissioner Rob Manfred who oddly called offseason lockouts “a positive” earlier this year since both sides are able to apply their leverage in a negotiation.
Clark expects negotiations to begin next spring, in line with historic standards. The league and union will have until December 1, 2026 to reach an agreement before risking another lockout.
So let’s not think about that until we have to, right? There’s bound to better things to occupy ourselves with. And what do we love more than pointless hypotheticals?
A post in the Baseball and Softball Worldwide group the other day had an interesting premise.
“If I was in charge of MLB, I would add one more rule. The rule would state that when a team lifts their starting pitcher they lose the DH for the rest of the game. It will improve the game by incentivizing organizations to develop pitchers not just throwers. Strategy comes back into baseball with double switches. You please the DH fan and the non DH fan.
Most importantly we will start to have starting pitchers who are stars again. Guys who go deep into games. Marquee pitching matchups. No more “openers”. No more bullpen games.
What do you think?” - The Pesky Pole
If you were Rob Manfred for a day, what rule would YOU change? (assuming we all agree the “ghost runner” would be gone…)
The Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles dissolved the so-called ‘MASN agreement’, MLB announced.
The Washington Post reported:
“Aside from the legal disputes, MASN has long been a point of frustration for the Nationals and their fans because of the network’s cost-cutting. Pre- and postgame coverage for Nationals games has been trimmed in recent years, as has the number of spring training games the network televises. After the coronavirus pandemic, MASN tried to cover games without sending announcers on the road, resulting in technical difficulties. Even this spring, broadcasters have provided commentary from the studio for Nationals games played in West Palm Beach, Florida.”
***
Thanks for reading. You might also enjoy…
Tipping Points, Feb 9.
Elite Giants, Dec 12, 2024
And because I spent most of this weekend listening to the brilliant new Jason isbell album:
You Thought God Was An Architect, Nov 28, 2024. (Thanksgiving seriously feels like forever ago now…
Finally, a sincere thank you to new subscribers. Glad to have you along. If you’d like to find out more about what I’m doing here, start with the first of these weekly columns:
***